The Syrian conflict has entered a new phase following the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, reshaping the political landscape and severely impacting the situation of displaced Syrians both within and outside the country.
On November 27th, 2024, opposition forces launched an offensive, capturing city after city in Syria with minimal resistance. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmad al-Sharaa entered Damascus on December 8th, declaring an end to over five decades of Assad family rule in Syria. Russian forces evacuated Assad to Russia on the evening of December 8.
Political Developments
Ahmed al-Sharaa now heads a caretaker government in Syria. The new administration is working to establish a governance framework and has announced plans for a national dialogue conference to discuss the country’s political transition. However, the conference has been delayed to allow for broader representation from all segments of Syrian society. The United Nations continues to emphasise the relevance of resolution 2254, which calls for a Syrian-led transitional process, including drafting a new constitution and holding free and fair elections.
Refugee Returns and Internal Displacement
The fall of the Assad regime has prompted discussions about the potential return of Syrian refugees. As of February 5, 2025, about 270,000 Syrians have returned to Syria since December 8, 2024. However, the situation remains fluid, with many refugees choosing to wait for more stability before considering a return. The Syria situation remains one of the largest displacement crises globally, with a 2025 projection of 7.2 million internally displaced people (IDPs) and 6.2 million refugees, primarily hosted in neighboring countries.
Refugee Intentions
In UNHCR’s return perceptions and intentions survey among Syrian refugees in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon:
- 57% indicated they hoped to return to Syria one day
- 37% hoped to return in the next five years
- Less than 2% intended to return in the next 12 months
Concerns about safety and security inside Syria remain the key obstacle to return, while a lack of livelihoods is an increasingly important factor influencing refugees’ decision-making.
Moreover, UNHCR is planning a pilot transportation project from Jordan to Syria, combined with counseling and assessment of the voluntary character of return.
Humanitarian Situation
The humanitarian crisis in Syria remains severe:
- 16.7 million people need humanitarian assistance and protection
- 90% of the population is living in poverty
- Essential infrastructure, including hospitals and schools, has been severely damaged
The European Union has pledged €235 million in humanitarian aid to Syrians in 2025. The aid will focus on providing essential services and protection both inside Syria and in neighboring countries.
Challenges for Returnees and IDPs
Returnees face significant challenges, including limited access to essential services, uncertain security conditions, lack of employment and livelihood opportunities, and the destruction of homes and infrastructure.
The security situation in northern Syria remains fragile, with various factions competing for control and influence. This ongoing instability poses risks for both returnees and IDPs.
International Response and Planning
Inter-agency planning for refugee return is progressing through working groups under the UNHCR and UNDP-led Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan (3RP) coordination system. This planning is grounded in protection principles and refugees’ choices, emphasizing that any return to Syria should be voluntary, safe, and dignified. The United Nations Security Council is expected to hold a meeting on the political and humanitarian developments in Syria this month to discuss the evolving situation and its impact on displaced populations.
Outlook for 2025
The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain. Spontaneous returns to Syria are expected to continue throughout the year, and up to 1.5 million Syrians may voluntarily return to Syria in 2025. Maintaining assistance to Syrian refugees in host countries remains crucial, as many are likely to remain there in the medium term.
The path forward for Syria and its displaced populations remains challenging. Addressing the political division, economic devastation, and social fragmentation will require sustained effort and support from both Syria and the international community. As the situation evolves, the focus should remain on ensuring the safety and well-being of returnees and IDPs while working towards sustainable solutions for Syria’s long-term stability and reconstruction.